Las Palmas 2–0 Reus: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Reus

8/19/2018

Segunda División · Round 1Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Las Palmas52%

×Draw29%

Reus18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchReus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.64

Las Palmas

1.29

Reus

0.64

Las Palmas creates 102% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 21 away

1.47

creates per match

0.38

0.89

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Reus

0.38

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Reus

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Reus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

82%

Las Palmas or Reus

71%

Draw or Reus

48%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

25%

Reus wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

72%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

37%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

14%

Reus 1+ goals

47%

Reus 2+ goals

14%

Reus 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

74%

Reus (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Reus attack 0.38 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Las Palmas scores more

52%

level

29%

Reus scores more

18%

Las Palmas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff