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Las Palmas vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Las Palmas
Las Palmas
Preview
15:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
4/11/2027Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 34Estadio de Gran Canaria
Big match
42%
Las Palmas
model favours
42%30%28%

Las Palmas score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Las Palmas42%
×Draw30%
Mallorca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas
1.19
Mallorca
0.91

Las Palmas creates 31% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 45 away

creates per match

Las Palmas
1.47
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Las Palmas
0.89
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw
72%
Las Palmas or Mallorca
70%
Draw or Mallorca
58%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+
18%
Mallorca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals
70%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
33%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
12%
Mallorca 1+ goals
60%
Mallorca 2+ goals
23%
Mallorca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)
60%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Las Palmas scores more
42%
level
30%
Mallorca scores more
28%

Las Palmas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mallorca win just 11% of their away games
  • 67% of Las Palmas’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Palmas
LDLWD
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Palmas vs Mallorca — Match Preview

Las Palmas face Mallorca on April 11, 2027 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Las Palmas host Mallorca at Estadio de Gran Canaria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.