Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Las Palmas vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Las Palmas
Las Palmas
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
7/20/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 42Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Las Palmas46%
×Draw27%
Extremadura27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas
1.39
Extremadura
0.98

Las Palmas creates 42% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 42 away

creates per match

Las Palmas
1.47
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Las Palmas
0.89
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw
73%
Las Palmas or Extremadura
73%
Draw or Extremadura
54%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+
22%
Extremadura wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals
75%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
40%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
16%
Extremadura 1+ goals
62%
Extremadura 2+ goals
26%
Extremadura 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)
64%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Las Palmas scores more
46%
level
27%
Extremadura scores more
27%

Las Palmas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas vs Extremadura

Las Palmas beat Extremadura 5-1 in Segunda División on July 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.