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Las Palmas III vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
2/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III43%
×Draw27%
UD San Fernando30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas III
1.40
UD San Fernando
1.12

Las Palmas III creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

creates per match

Las Palmas III
1.83
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Las Palmas III
0.98
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw
70%
Las Palmas III or UD San Fernando
73%
Draw or UD San Fernando
57%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+
21%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals
75%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
41%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
17%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
67%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
31%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
59%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.40

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Las Palmas III scores more
43%
level
27%
UD San Fernando scores more
30%

Las Palmas III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Palmas III 2–2 UD San Fernando

Las Palmas III and UD San Fernando drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.