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Las Palmas III vs Tamaraceite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
CANC
00:00
Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 35Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III50%
×Draw25%
Tamaraceite24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas III
1.56
Tamaraceite
1.00

Las Palmas III creates 56% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 81 away

creates per match

Las Palmas III
1.83
Tamaraceite
1.02

allows per match

Las Palmas III
0.98
Tamaraceite
1.30

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par
Tamaraceite+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Tamaraceite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw
76%
Las Palmas III or Tamaraceite
75%
Draw or Tamaraceite
50%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+
26%
Tamaraceite wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals
79%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
46%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
21%
Tamaraceite 1+ goals
63%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
26%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
67%
Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Tamaraceite away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Tamaraceite defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tamaraceite attack 1.02 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Las Palmas III scores more
50%
level
25%
Tamaraceite scores more
24%

Las Palmas III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Palmas III face Tamaraceite (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Las Palmas III hosting Tamaraceite. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Las Palmas III host Tamaraceite at Anexo Gran Canaria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.