Las Palmas III 4–2 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Las Palmas III

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Úrsula

2/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III55%

×Draw24%

Santa Úrsula21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIIExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.94

Las Palmas III

1.68

Santa Úrsula

0.94

Las Palmas III creates 79% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 92 away

1.83

creates per match

0.90

0.98

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Las Palmas III

1.83

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Las Palmas III

0.98

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw

79%

Las Palmas III or Santa Úrsula

76%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

45%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+

30%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals

81%

Las Palmas III 2+ goals

50%

Las Palmas III 3+ goals

24%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

61%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

24%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)

72%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.68

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Las Palmas III scores more

55%

level

24%

Santa Úrsula scores more

21%

Las Palmas III at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Santa Úrsula

Las Palmas III beat Santa Úrsula 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Las Palmas III vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Santa Úrsula