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Las Palmas III vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mensajero
Mensajero
10/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III51%
×Draw25%
Mensajero24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas III
1.60
Mensajero
1.03

Las Palmas III creates 55% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

creates per match

Las Palmas III
1.83
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

Las Palmas III
0.98
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw
76%
Las Palmas III or Mensajero
75%
Draw or Mensajero
49%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+
26%
Mensajero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals
80%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
47%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
22%
Mensajero 1+ goals
64%
Mensajero 2+ goals
28%
Mensajero 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
67%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Las Palmas III scores more
51%
level
25%
Mensajero scores more
24%

Las Palmas III at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Mensajero

Las Palmas III and Mensajero drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.