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Las Palmas III vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
4/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III57%
×Draw23%
La Cuadra20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas III
1.82
La Cuadra
0.99

Las Palmas III creates 84% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 75 away

creates per match

Las Palmas III
1.83
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Las Palmas III
0.98
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw
80%
Las Palmas III or La Cuadra
77%
Draw or La Cuadra
43%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+
32%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals
84%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
54%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
27%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
63%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
26%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
74%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.82

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Las Palmas III scores more
57%
level
23%
La Cuadra scores more
20%

Las Palmas III at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Palmas III 2–0 La Cuadra

Las Palmas III beat La Cuadra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.