Las Palmas III 1–3 Atlético Paso: Result & Stats

Las Palmas III

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Atlético Paso

1/3/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III45%

×Draw27%

Atlético Paso28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Paso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.05

Las Palmas III

1.41

Atlético Paso

1.05

Las Palmas III creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

1.83

creates per match

1.12

0.98

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Las Palmas III

1.83

Atlético Paso

1.12

allows per match

Las Palmas III

0.98

Atlético Paso

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Atlético Paso →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw

72%

Las Palmas III or Atlético Paso

73%

Draw or Atlético Paso

55%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+

22%

Atlético Paso wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals

76%

Las Palmas III 2+ goals

41%

Las Palmas III 3+ goals

17%

Atlético Paso 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Paso 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Paso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)

62%

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Las Palmas III scores more

45%

level

27%

Atlético Paso scores more

28%

Las Palmas III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Atlético Paso

Atlético Paso beat Las Palmas III 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 3, 2026.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Las Palmas III vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Atlético Paso