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Las Palmas III vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
CANC
00:00
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III45%
×Draw27%
Atlético Paso28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas III
1.41
Atlético Paso
1.05

Las Palmas III creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

creates per match

Las Palmas III
1.83
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Las Palmas III
0.98
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw
72%
Las Palmas III or Atlético Paso
73%
Draw or Atlético Paso
55%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals
76%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
41%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Las Palmas III scores more
45%
level
27%
Atlético Paso scores more
28%

Las Palmas III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Palmas III face Atlético Paso (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Las Palmas III hosting Atlético Paso. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Las Palmas III host Atlético Paso at Anexo Gran Canaria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.