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Las Palmas II vs Tamaraceite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Las Palmas II62%
×Draw23%
Tamaraceite15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.79
Tamaraceite
0.76

Las Palmas II creates 136% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 81 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
2.29
Tamaraceite
1.02

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.49
Tamaraceite
1.30

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Tamaraceite+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Tamaraceite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
85%
Las Palmas II or Tamaraceite
77%
Draw or Tamaraceite
38%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
36%
Tamaraceite wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
83%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
53%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
26%
Tamaraceite 1+ goals
53%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
18%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
80%
Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

Tamaraceite away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + Tamaraceite defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tamaraceite attack 1.02 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
62%
level
23%
Tamaraceite scores more
15%

Las Palmas II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas II vs Tamaraceite

Las Palmas II beat Tamaraceite 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.