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Las Palmas II vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
CANC
22:00
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Palmas II50%
×Draw30%
Sporting Gijón II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.21
Sporting Gijón II
0.65

Las Palmas II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
1.08
Sporting Gijón II
0.67

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.62
Sporting Gijón II
1.33

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
80%
Las Palmas II or Sporting Gijón II
70%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
50%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
22%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
70%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
34%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
12%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
48%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
14%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
71%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.08 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Las Palmas II defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
50%
level
30%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
20%

Las Palmas II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Las Palmas II host Sporting Gijón II

May 16, 2020: Las Palmas II take on Sporting Gijón II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Las Palmas II host Sporting Gijón II at Anexo Gran Canaria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.