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Las Palmas II vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Las Palmas II66%
×Draw21%
San Bartolomé13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.96
San Bartolomé
0.74

Las Palmas II creates 165% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
2.29
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.49
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
87%
Las Palmas II or San Bartolomé
79%
Draw or San Bartolomé
34%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
41%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
86%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
58%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
31%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
52%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
17%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
83%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.96

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
66%
level
21%
San Bartolomé scores more
13%

Las Palmas II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Palmas II 5–2 San Bartolomé

Las Palmas II beat San Bartolomé 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.