Las Palmas II 1–2 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Las Palmas II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Oviedo II

9/8/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Palmas II54%

×Draw26%

Real Oviedo II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.77

Las Palmas II

1.48

Real Oviedo II

0.77

Las Palmas II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

0.92

0.62

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Las Palmas II

1.08

Real Oviedo II

0.92

allows per match

Las Palmas II

0.62

Real Oviedo II

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw

80%

Las Palmas II or Real Oviedo II

74%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

46%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+

28%

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals

77%

Las Palmas II 2+ goals

43%

Las Palmas II 3+ goals

19%

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

54%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

18%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)

73%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.08 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real Oviedo II attack 0.92 + Las Palmas II defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Las Palmas II scores more

54%

level

26%

Real Oviedo II scores more

20%

Las Palmas II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff