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Las Palmas II vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estrella
Estrella
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Las Palmas II78%
×Draw15%
Estrella7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
2.33
Estrella
0.53

Las Palmas II creates 340% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
2.29
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.49
Estrella
2.38

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
93%
Las Palmas II or Estrella
85%
Draw or Estrella
22%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
54%
Estrella wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
90%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
67%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
41%
Estrella 1+ goals
41%
Estrella 2+ goals
10%
Estrella 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
92%
Estrella (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.33

Estrella attack 0.56 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
78%
level
15%
Estrella scores more
7%

Las Palmas II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas II vs Estrella

Las Palmas II beat Estrella 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.