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Las Palmas II vs Atlético Victoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Las Palmas II73%
×Draw18%
Atlético Victoria9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
2.13
Atlético Victoria
0.61

Las Palmas II creates 249% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
2.29
Atlético Victoria
0.74

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.49
Atlético Victoria
1.97

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Atlético Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
91%
Las Palmas II or Atlético Victoria
82%
Draw or Atlético Victoria
27%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
48%
Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
88%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
63%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
35%
Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
46%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
13%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
89%
Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

Atlético Victoria away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.13

Atlético Victoria attack 0.74 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
73%
level
18%
Atlético Victoria scores more
9%

Las Palmas II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Palmas II 3 – 0 Atlético Victoria

Las Palmas II beat Atlético Victoria 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.