Larne W 0–2 Lisburn Ladies W: Result & Stats

Larne W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lisburn Ladies W

S. Younes Alsaidi 74'

J. Hall 67'

5/16/2025

Premiership Women · Round 2Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Larne W33%

×Draw19%

Lisburn Ladies W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Larne WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Ladies W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.56

Larne W

2.13

Lisburn Ladies W

2.56

Lisburn Ladies W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

0.86

creates per match

1.16

3.95

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Larne W

0.86

Lisburn Ladies W

1.16

allows per match

Larne W

3.95

Lisburn Ladies W

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne W+0.00on par

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Larne W or draw

52%

Larne W or Lisburn Ladies W

81%

Draw or Lisburn Ladies W

67%

Winning margin

Larne W wins by 2+

18%

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Larne W 1+ goals

88%

Larne W 2+ goals

63%

Larne W 3+ goals

35%

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

92%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

72%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Larne W (draw refunded)

41%

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.95 · 21 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne W attack 0.86 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lisburn Ladies W attack 1.16 + Larne W defence 3.95 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Larne W scores more

33%

level

19%

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

48%

Lisburn Ladies W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lisburn Ladies W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

J. Hall

74'

S. Younes Alsaidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff