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Larne W vs Glentoran BU W — Premiership Women 2026

Larne W
Larne W
Preview
18:45
Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
8/14/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group StageInver Park
Big match
88%
Glentoran BU W
model favours
4%7%88%

Larne W score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–4
likely score
88%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Larne W4%
×Draw7%
Glentoran BU W88%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Larne W
0.98
Glentoran BU W
4.31

Glentoran BU W creates 340% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Larne W
0.60
Glentoran BU W
3.82

allows per match

Larne W
4.80
Glentoran BU W
1.36

finishing

Larne W+0.00on par
Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne W ↓

Glentoran BU W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Larne W or draw
12%
Larne W or Glentoran BU W
93%
Draw or Glentoran BU W
96%

Winning margin

Larne W wins by 2+
1%
Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
75%

Team goals

Larne W 1+ goals
62%
Larne W 2+ goals
26%
Larne W 3+ goals
8%
Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
98%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
92%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

Larne W (draw refunded)
5%
Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 4.80 · 15 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 3.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne W attack 0.60 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.98

Glentoran BU W attack 3.82 + Larne W defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 4.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Larne W scores more
4%
level
7%
Glentoran BU W scores more
88%

Glentoran BU W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (86% and 83% over 2.5)
  • 86% of Larne W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 83% of Glentoran BU W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Glentoran BU W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Glentoran BU W score first in only 33% of matches
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLLLL
W
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Larne W host Glentoran BU W

August 14, 2026: Larne W take on Glentoran BU W in Premiership Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Larne W host Glentoran BU W at Inver Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.