Larne W 1–4 Glentoran BU W: Result & Stats

Larne W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Glentoran BU W

A. Peachey 63'

D. Vance 50' (pen)

E. Butler 48'

K. Weir 25', 16'

8/4/2025

Premiership Women · Round 7Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Larne W4%

×Draw7%

Glentoran BU W89%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Larne WExpected goals in this matchGlentoran BU W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

4.47

Larne W

0.96

Glentoran BU W

4.47

Glentoran BU W creates 366% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

0.60

creates per match

4.15

4.80

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Larne W

0.60

Glentoran BU W

4.15

allows per match

Larne W

4.80

Glentoran BU W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne W+0.00on par

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne W ↓

Glentoran BU W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–25%

0–38%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Larne W or draw

11%

Larne W or Glentoran BU W

93%

Draw or Glentoran BU W

96%

Winning margin

Larne W wins by 2+

1%

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+

77%

Team goals

Larne W 1+ goals

62%

Larne W 2+ goals

25%

Larne W 3+ goals

7%

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals

99%

Glentoran BU W 2+ goals

92%

Glentoran BU W 3+ goals

79%

Draw no bet

Larne W (draw refunded)

4%

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 4.80 · 15 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 4.15, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne W attack 0.60 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.96

Glentoran BU W attack 4.15 + Larne W defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 4.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Larne W scores more

4%

level

7%

Glentoran BU W scores more

89%

Glentoran BU W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

K. Weir

25'

K. Weir

48'

E. Butler

50'

D. VancePenalty

63'

A. Peachey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff