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Larne vs Bala Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Larne
Larne
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bala Town
Bala Town
M. Lusty 57' (pen)
L. Bonis 44'
G. Newell 60' (pen)
6/29/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Larne82%
×Draw12%
Bala Town6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Larne
2.90
Bala Town
0.67

Larne creates 333% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Larne
2.80
Bala Town
0.33

allows per match

Larne
1.00
Bala Town
3.00

finishing

Larne+0.00on par
Bala Town+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne ↓

Bala Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Larne or draw
94%
Larne or Bala Town
88%
Draw or Bala Town
18%

Winning margin

Larne wins by 2+
62%
Bala Town wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Larne 1+ goals
94%
Larne 2+ goals
78%
Larne 3+ goals
54%
Bala Town 1+ goals
49%
Bala Town 2+ goals
15%
Bala Town 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Larne (draw refunded)
93%
Bala Town (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Bala Town away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne attack 2.80 + Bala Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.90

Bala Town attack 0.33 + Larne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Larne scores more
82%
level
12%
Bala Town scores more
6%

Larne at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
L. Bonis
46'
C. Bolger← J. Thomson
46'
Trialist B← Trialist B
57'
M. LustyPenalty
60'
G. NewellPenalty
60'
R. Brown← R. Brown
60'
P. O'Neill← P. O'Neill
65'
G. Newell← J. Malkin
65'
L. Mendes← S. Badjana
65'
A. Edwards← N. Arsan
76'
J. Ukek← J. Ukek
76'
L. Robles← U. Kargbo
76'
Trialist C← Trialist C
76'
L. Ives← C. Smith
76'
M. Randall← J. Simpson
76'
R. Ferguson← O. Devlin
86'
R. White← Petro
89'
N. Burke← T. Hughes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Larne 2–1 Bala Town

Larne beat Bala Town 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2024.

Goals: L. Bonis (44'), M. Lusty (57' pen), G. Newell (60' pen).

The match was played at Inver Park in Larne.