Larkhall Athletic 1–4 Frome Town: Result & Stats

Larkhall Athletic

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Frome Town

2/21/2026

League #56

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Larkhall Athletic20%

×Draw18%

Frome Town62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Larkhall AthleticExpected goals in this matchFrome Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.67

Larkhall Athletic

1.48

Frome Town

2.67

Frome Town creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

2.35

3.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Larkhall Athletic

1.67

Frome Town

2.35

allows per match

Larkhall Athletic

3.00

Frome Town

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larkhall Athletic+0.00on par

Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larkhall Athletic ↓

Frome Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Larkhall Athletic or draw

38%

Larkhall Athletic or Frome Town

82%

Draw or Frome Town

80%

Winning margin

Larkhall Athletic wins by 2+

9%

Frome Town wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Larkhall Athletic 1+ goals

77%

Larkhall Athletic 2+ goals

43%

Larkhall Athletic 3+ goals

19%

Frome Town 1+ goals

93%

Frome Town 2+ goals

74%

Frome Town 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Larkhall Athletic (draw refunded)

24%

Frome Town (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larkhall Athletic at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larkhall Athletic attack 1.67 + Frome Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Frome Town attack 2.35 + Larkhall Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Larkhall Athletic scores more

20%

level

18%

Frome Town scores more

62%

Frome Town at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff