Larisa 0–2 Levadiakos: Result & Stats

Larisa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Levadiakos

P. Symelidis 90'

F. Pedrozo 17'

11/2/2025

Super League 1 · Round 9AEL FC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Larisa45%

×Draw29%

Levadiakos26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LarisaExpected goals in this matchLevadiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.86

Larisa

1.23

Levadiakos

0.86

Larisa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.99

creates per match

0.90

0.83

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Larisa

0.99

Levadiakos

0.90

allows per match

Larisa

0.83

Levadiakos

1.46

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Larisa-0.16scores less

Levadiakos-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larisa ↓

Levadiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Larisa or draw

74%

Larisa or Levadiakos

71%

Draw or Levadiakos

55%

Winning margin

Larisa wins by 2+

20%

Levadiakos wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Larisa 1+ goals

71%

Larisa 2+ goals

35%

Larisa 3+ goals

13%

Levadiakos 1+ goals

58%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

21%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Larisa (draw refunded)

63%

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larisa at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Levadiakos away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larisa attack 0.99 + Levadiakos defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Levadiakos attack 0.90 + Larisa defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Larisa scores more

45%

level

29%

Levadiakos scores more

26%

Larisa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Larisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

P. Liagas

Levadiakos · D

7.7

Match Events

17'

F. Pedrozo

26'

Benjamin Verbič

37'

Athanasios Papageorgiou

53'

A. Sagal← S. Mourgos

53'

L. Tupta← Z. Chatzistravos

58'

Petros Bagalianis

60'

P. Symelidis← B. Verbic

64'

66'

71'

73'

73'

A. Ozbolt← F. Pedrozo

75'

79'

80'

90+6'

90+1'

A. Tshibola← S. Palacios

90'

P. Symelidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LarisaLevadiakos

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots12

3Corners11

14Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target6

6Off Target5

4Blocked1

6Inside Box7

9Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

333Total Passes410

259Accurate Passes325

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2