Laredo 4–1 Textil Escudo: Result & Stats

Laredo

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Textil Escudo

1/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Laredo63%

×Draw22%

Textil Escudo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaredoExpected goals in this matchTextil Escudo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.80

Laredo

1.89

Textil Escudo

0.80

Laredo creates 136% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 56 away

1.87

creates per match

0.88

0.72

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Laredo

1.87

Textil Escudo

0.88

allows per match

Laredo

0.72

Textil Escudo

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par

Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Textil Escudo →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Laredo or draw

85%

Laredo or Textil Escudo

78%

Draw or Textil Escudo

37%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+

38%

Textil Escudo wins by 2+

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals

85%

Laredo 2+ goals

56%

Laredo 3+ goals

29%

Textil Escudo 1+ goals

55%

Textil Escudo 2+ goals

19%

Textil Escudo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)

80%

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.87 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Laredo defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Laredo scores more

63%

level

22%

Textil Escudo scores more

15%

Laredo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff