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Laredo vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tarazona
Tarazona
4/17/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 3Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laredo50%
×Draw31%
Tarazona19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.20
Tarazona
0.63

Laredo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.08
Tarazona
0.56

allows per match

Laredo
0.69
Tarazona
1.31

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Tarazona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
81%
Laredo or Tarazona
69%
Draw or Tarazona
50%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
22%
Tarazona wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
70%
Laredo 2+ goals
34%
Laredo 3+ goals
12%
Tarazona 1+ goals
47%
Tarazona 2+ goals
13%
Tarazona 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
72%
Tarazona (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.08 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Laredo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Laredo scores more
50%
level
31%
Tarazona scores more
19%

Laredo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laredo vs Tarazona

Laredo beat Tarazona 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.