Laredo 1–0 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Laredo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Unión

11/8/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laredo42%

×Draw31%

Real Unión27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaredoExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.82

Laredo

1.11

Real Unión

0.82

Laredo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

0.96

0.69

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Laredo

1.08

Real Unión

0.96

allows per match

Laredo

0.69

Real Unión

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Laredo or draw

73%

Laredo or Real Unión

69%

Draw or Real Unión

58%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+

17%

Real Unión wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals

67%

Laredo 2+ goals

30%

Laredo 3+ goals

10%

Real Unión 1+ goals

56%

Real Unión 2+ goals

20%

Real Unión 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)

61%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.08 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Laredo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Laredo scores more

42%

level

31%

Real Unión scores more

27%

Laredo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff