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Laredo vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
11/21/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laredo34%
×Draw28%
Racing Santander38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.11
Racing Santander
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.08
Racing Santander
1.69

allows per match

Laredo
0.69
Racing Santander
1.15

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
62%
Laredo or Racing Santander
72%
Draw or Racing Santander
66%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
14%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
67%
Laredo 2+ goals
30%
Laredo 3+ goals
10%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
70%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
33%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
47%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.08 + Racing Santander defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Racing Santander attack 1.69 + Laredo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Laredo scores more
34%
level
28%
Racing Santander scores more
38%

Racing Santander at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laredo vs Racing Santander

Laredo and Racing Santander drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.