Laredo 1–1 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Laredo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Osasuna II

5/22/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 8Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laredo48%

×Draw29%

Osasuna II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaredoExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.82

Laredo

1.29

Osasuna II

0.82

Laredo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

0.96

0.69

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Laredo

1.08

Osasuna II

0.96

allows per match

Laredo

0.69

Osasuna II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Laredo or draw

76%

Laredo or Osasuna II

71%

Draw or Osasuna II

52%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+

22%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals

72%

Laredo 2+ goals

37%

Laredo 3+ goals

14%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

56%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

20%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)

67%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.08 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Laredo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Laredo scores more

48%

level

29%

Osasuna II scores more

24%

Laredo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff