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Laredo vs Naval — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naval
Naval
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Laredo53%
×Draw24%
Naval22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.66
Naval
0.97

Laredo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 64 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.87
Naval
1.23

allows per match

Laredo
0.72
Naval
1.44

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Naval+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Naval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
78%
Laredo or Naval
76%
Draw or Naval
47%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
29%
Naval wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
81%
Laredo 2+ goals
49%
Laredo 3+ goals
23%
Naval 1+ goals
62%
Naval 2+ goals
25%
Naval 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
71%
Naval (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Naval away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.87 + Naval defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.66

Naval attack 1.23 + Laredo defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Laredo scores more
53%
level
24%
Naval scores more
22%

Laredo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Laredo 1–1 Naval

Laredo and Naval drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.