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Laredo vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Castro
Castro
11/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Laredo56%
×Draw24%
Castro19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.67
Castro
0.87

Laredo creates 92% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 96 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.87
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Laredo
0.72
Castro
1.46

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
81%
Laredo or Castro
76%
Draw or Castro
44%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
31%
Castro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
81%
Laredo 2+ goals
50%
Laredo 3+ goals
23%
Castro 1+ goals
58%
Castro 2+ goals
22%
Castro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
74%
Castro (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.87 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Castro attack 1.02 + Laredo defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Laredo scores more
56%
level
24%
Castro scores more
19%

Laredo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Laredo 0–2 Castro

Castro beat Laredo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.