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Laredo vs Bezana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bezana
Bezana
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Laredo52%
×Draw25%
Bezana23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.60
Bezana
0.97

Laredo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 81 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.87
Bezana
1.23

allows per match

Laredo
0.72
Bezana
1.33

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Bezana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
77%
Laredo or Bezana
75%
Draw or Bezana
48%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
27%
Bezana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
80%
Laredo 2+ goals
47%
Laredo 3+ goals
22%
Bezana 1+ goals
62%
Bezana 2+ goals
25%
Bezana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
69%
Bezana (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.87 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bezana attack 1.23 + Laredo defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Laredo scores more
52%
level
25%
Bezana scores more
23%

Laredo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Laredo 2–2 Bezana

Laredo and Bezana drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.