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Laredo vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Barakaldo
Barakaldo
10/24/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laredo54%
×Draw27%
Barakaldo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.47
Barakaldo
0.75

Laredo creates 96% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.08
Barakaldo
0.82

allows per match

Laredo
0.69
Barakaldo
1.86

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Barakaldo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
81%
Laredo or Barakaldo
73%
Draw or Barakaldo
46%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
28%
Barakaldo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
77%
Laredo 2+ goals
43%
Laredo 3+ goals
18%
Barakaldo 1+ goals
53%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
17%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
74%
Barakaldo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.08 + Barakaldo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Barakaldo attack 0.82 + Laredo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Laredo scores more
54%
level
27%
Barakaldo scores more
19%

Laredo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Laredo 2–0 Barakaldo

Laredo beat Barakaldo 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.