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Laredo vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
2/13/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laredo43%
×Draw30%
Arenas Getxo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.17
Arenas Getxo
0.84

Laredo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.08
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Laredo
0.69
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
74%
Laredo or Arenas Getxo
70%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
57%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
19%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
69%
Laredo 2+ goals
33%
Laredo 3+ goals
11%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
57%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
62%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.08 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Laredo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Laredo scores more
43%
level
30%
Arenas Getxo scores more
26%

Laredo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Laredo 1–0 Arenas Getxo

Laredo beat Arenas Getxo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.