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Laredo Heat vs Fort Lauderdale United — USL League Two 2026

Laredo Heat
Laredo Heat
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fort Lauderdale United
Fort Lauderdale Unitedadvanced
S. Meza 45'
R. Belgrove 95'
A. Morral 45'
7/18/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsPremier Sports Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Laredo Heat65%
×Draw19%
Fort Lauderdale United15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo Heat
2.19
Fort Lauderdale United
0.95

Laredo Heat creates 131% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Laredo Heat
3.00
Fort Lauderdale United
1.50

allows per match

Laredo Heat
0.40
Fort Lauderdale United
1.38

finishing

Laredo Heat+0.00on par
Fort Lauderdale United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo Heat ↓

Fort Lauderdale United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Laredo Heat or draw
85%
Laredo Heat or Fort Lauderdale United
81%
Draw or Fort Lauderdale United
35%

Winning margin

Laredo Heat wins by 2+
42%
Fort Lauderdale United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Laredo Heat 1+ goals
89%
Laredo Heat 2+ goals
64%
Laredo Heat 3+ goals
37%
Fort Lauderdale United 1+ goals
61%
Fort Lauderdale United 2+ goals
25%
Fort Lauderdale United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Laredo Heat (draw refunded)
81%
Fort Lauderdale United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo Heat at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Fort Lauderdale United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo Heat attack 3.00 + Fort Lauderdale United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Fort Lauderdale United attack 1.50 + Laredo Heat defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Laredo Heat scores more
65%
level
19%
Fort Lauderdale United scores more
15%

Laredo Heat at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Laredo Heat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Morral
45'
S. Meza
95'
R. Belgrove
Laredo
Fort
A. Davison
Manager: A. Davison
Cristian Raúl Ledesma
Manager: Cristian Raúl Ledesma

USL League Two: Laredo Heat 1–1 Fort Lauderdale United

Laredo Heat and Fort Lauderdale United drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Morral (45'), S. Meza (45'), R. Belgrove (95').

The match was played at Premier Sports Campus in Bradenton, Florida.