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LaPa vs NJS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

LaPa
LaPa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NJS
NJS
10/1/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 14Kimpisen Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

LaPa21%
×Draw19%
NJS60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LaPa
1.31
NJS
2.34

NJS creates 79% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 65 away

creates per match

LaPa
0.91
NJS
1.32

allows per match

LaPa
3.36
NJS
1.72

finishing

LaPa+0.00on par
NJS+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LaPa ↓

NJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

LaPa or draw
40%
LaPa or NJS
81%
Draw or NJS
79%

Winning margin

LaPa wins by 2+
8%
NJS wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

LaPa 1+ goals
73%
LaPa 2+ goals
38%
LaPa 3+ goals
14%
NJS 1+ goals
90%
NJS 2+ goals
67%
NJS 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

LaPa (draw refunded)
26%
NJS (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LaPa at home — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

NJS away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LaPa attack 0.91 + NJS defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.31

NJS attack 1.32 + LaPa defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

LaPa scores more
21%
level
19%
NJS scores more
60%

NJS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "NJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LaPa vs NJS

NJS beat LaPa 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kimpisen Urheilupuisto in Lappeenranta.