Laos 0–2 Singapore: Result & Stats

Laos

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Singapore

12/27/2022

AFF Championship · Group Stage - 3National Stadium KM16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Laos17%

×Draw20%

Singapore62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaosExpected goals in this matchSingapore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.13

Laos

1.03

Singapore

2.13

Singapore creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

0.50

creates per match

1.00

3.25

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Laos

0.50

Singapore

1.00

allows per match

Laos

3.25

Singapore

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laos+0.00on par

Singapore+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laos ↓

Singapore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Laos or draw

38%

Laos or Singapore

80%

Draw or Singapore

83%

Winning margin

Laos wins by 2+

6%

Singapore wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Laos 1+ goals

64%

Laos 2+ goals

28%

Laos 3+ goals

9%

Singapore 1+ goals

88%

Singapore 2+ goals

63%

Singapore 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Laos (draw refunded)

22%

Singapore (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laos at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Singapore away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laos attack 0.50 + Singapore defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.03

Singapore attack 1.00 + Laos defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Laos scores more

17%

level

20%

Singapore scores more

62%

Singapore at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Singapore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff