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Laos vs Philippines — AFF Championship 2018

Laos
Laos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Philippines
Philippines
12/15/2024AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 3Lao National Stadium KM16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Laos13%
×Draw16%
Philippines71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laos
1.03
Philippines
2.63

Philippines creates 155% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Laos
0.50
Philippines
2.00

allows per match

Laos
3.25
Philippines
1.56

finishing

Laos+0.00on par
Philippines+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laos ↓

Philippines →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Laos or draw
29%
Laos or Philippines
84%
Draw or Philippines
87%

Winning margin

Laos wins by 2+
4%
Philippines wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Laos 1+ goals
64%
Laos 2+ goals
28%
Laos 3+ goals
9%
Philippines 1+ goals
93%
Philippines 2+ goals
73%
Philippines 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Laos (draw refunded)
15%
Philippines (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laos at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Philippines away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laos attack 0.50 + Philippines defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.03

Philippines attack 2.00 + Laos defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Laos scores more
13%
level
16%
Philippines scores more
71%

Philippines at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Philippines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laos vs Philippines

Laos and Philippines drew 1-1 in AFF Championship on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Lao National Stadium KM16 in Vientiane.