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Laos U19 vs Cambodia U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Laos U19
Laos U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cambodia U19
Cambodia U19
7/7/2022AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Laos U1941%
×Draw22%
Cambodia U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laos U19
1.90
Cambodia U19
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Laos U19
1.60
Cambodia U19
1.20

allows per match

Laos U19
2.40
Cambodia U19
2.20

finishing

Laos U19+0.00on par
Cambodia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laos U19 ↓

Cambodia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Laos U19 or draw
63%
Laos U19 or Cambodia U19
78%
Draw or Cambodia U19
59%

Winning margin

Laos U19 wins by 2+
22%
Cambodia U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Laos U19 1+ goals
85%
Laos U19 2+ goals
56%
Laos U19 3+ goals
29%
Cambodia U19 1+ goals
83%
Cambodia U19 2+ goals
54%
Cambodia U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Laos U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Cambodia U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laos U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Cambodia U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laos U19 attack 1.60 + Cambodia U19 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Cambodia U19 attack 1.20 + Laos U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Laos U19 scores more
41%
level
22%
Cambodia U19 scores more
37%

Laos U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Laos U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laos U19 vs Cambodia U19

Laos U19 beat Cambodia U19 2-1 in AFF U19 Championship on July 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta.