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Laos U17 vs Guam U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2026

Laos U17
Laos U17
FT
8 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Guam U17
Guam U17
11/22/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Laos U1796%
×Draw3%
Guam U171%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laos U17
6.33
Guam U17
0.83

Laos U17 creates 663% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Laos U17
5.00
Guam U17
0.33

allows per match

Laos U17
1.33
Guam U17
7.67

finishing

Laos U17+0.00on par
Guam U17+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laos U17 ↓

Guam U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 44% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Laos U17 or draw
99%
Laos U17 or Guam U17
97%
Draw or Guam U17
4%

Winning margin

Laos U17 wins by 2+
90%
Guam U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Laos U17 1+ goals
100%
Laos U17 2+ goals
98%
Laos U17 3+ goals
91%
Guam U17 1+ goals
56%
Guam U17 2+ goals
20%
Guam U17 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Laos U17 (draw refunded)
99%
Guam U17 (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laos U17 at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Guam U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laos U17 attack 5.00 + Guam U17 defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 6.33

Guam U17 attack 0.33 + Laos U17 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Laos U17 scores more
96%
level
3%
Guam U17 scores more
1%

Laos U17 at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Laos U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laos U17 vs Guam U17

Laos U17 beat Guam U17 8-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 22, 2025.