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Lanzarote vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
5/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Lanzarote54%
×Draw27%
Unión Sur Yaiza20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.45
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.76

Lanzarote creates 91% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 65 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
80%
Lanzarote or Unión Sur Yaiza
73%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
46%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
27%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
77%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
42%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
18%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
53%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
18%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
73%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lanzarote scores more
54%
level
27%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
20%

Lanzarote at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Lanzarote 0–0 Unión Sur Yaiza

Lanzarote and Unión Sur Yaiza drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Lanzarote.