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Lanzarote vs Tenerife C — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tenerife C
Tenerife C
R. Fernandez 81'
A. Machin 77'
M. Guille 37'
9/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lanzarote49%
×Draw25%
Tenerife C26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.56
Tenerife C
1.05

Lanzarote creates 49% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Tenerife C
1.47

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Tenerife C
1.53

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Tenerife C+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Tenerife C →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
74%
Lanzarote or Tenerife C
75%
Draw or Tenerife C
51%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
25%
Tenerife C wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
79%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
46%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
21%
Tenerife C 1+ goals
65%
Tenerife C 2+ goals
28%
Tenerife C 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
66%
Tenerife C (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Tenerife C away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Tenerife C defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tenerife C attack 1.47 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lanzarote scores more
49%
level
25%
Tenerife C scores more
26%

Lanzarote at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
M. Guille
77'
A. Machin
81'
R. Fernandez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanzarote vs Tenerife C

Lanzarote beat Tenerife C 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 7, 2025.

Goals: M. Guille (37'), A. Machin (77'), R. Fernandez (81').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Arrecife (Lanzarote).