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Lanzarote vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
1/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Lanzarote56%
×Draw26%
Santa Úrsula19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.55
Santa Úrsula
0.77

Lanzarote creates 101% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 92 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
81%
Lanzarote or Santa Úrsula
74%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
44%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
29%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
79%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
46%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
20%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
54%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
18%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
75%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.55

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lanzarote scores more
56%
level
26%
Santa Úrsula scores more
19%

Lanzarote at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lanzarote 7 – 0 Santa Úrsula

Lanzarote beat Santa Úrsula 7-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández in Tías.