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Lanzarote vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
5/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lanzarote55%
×Draw28%
Real Unión de Tenerife17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.35
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.61

Lanzarote creates 121% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
83%
Lanzarote or Real Unión de Tenerife
72%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
45%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
27%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
74%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
39%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
15%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
46%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
13%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
77%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lanzarote scores more
55%
level
28%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
17%

Lanzarote at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Lanzarote 0–0 Real Unión de Tenerife

Lanzarote and Real Unión de Tenerife drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Arrecife (Lanzarote).