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Lanzarote vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
4/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 26Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Lanzarote41%
×Draw28%
Las Palmas II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.25
Las Palmas II
1.04

Lanzarote creates 20% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 49 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
69%
Lanzarote or Las Palmas II
72%
Draw or Las Palmas II
59%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
18%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
71%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
36%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
13%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
65%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
28%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
57%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.25

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lanzarote scores more
41%
level
28%
Las Palmas II scores more
31%

Lanzarote at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanzarote vs Las Palmas II

Lanzarote beat Las Palmas II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Lanzarote.