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Lanzarote vs Atlético Tacoronte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
CANC
00:00
Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lanzarote62%
×Draw23%
Atlético Tacoronte15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.77
Atlético Tacoronte
0.74

Lanzarote creates 139% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Atlético Tacoronte
0.86

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Atlético Tacoronte
1.96

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Atlético Tacoronte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
85%
Lanzarote or Atlético Tacoronte
77%
Draw or Atlético Tacoronte
38%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
83%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
53%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
80%
Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Atlético Tacoronte away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

Atlético Tacoronte attack 0.86 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lanzarote scores more
62%
level
23%
Atlético Tacoronte scores more
15%

Lanzarote at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lanzarote vs Atlético Tacoronte — Match Preview

Lanzarote face Atlético Tacoronte on March 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lanzarote host Atlético Tacoronte at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.