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Lanusei vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
5/15/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 31Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lanusei45%
×Draw27%
Real Monterotondo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.41
Real Monterotondo
1.04

Lanusei creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Real Monterotondo
0.97

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Real Monterotondo
1.61

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Real Monterotondo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
72%
Lanusei or Real Monterotondo
73%
Draw or Real Monterotondo
55%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
22%
Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
76%
Lanusei 2+ goals
41%
Lanusei 3+ goals
17%
Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
65%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
28%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
62%
Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lanusei scores more
45%
level
27%
Real Monterotondo scores more
28%

Lanusei at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lanusei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanusei vs Real Monterotondo

Lanusei beat Real Monterotondo 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei in Lanusei.