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Lanusei vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
PST
13:00
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
4/9/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 31Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lanusei33%
×Draw27%
Ostia Mare41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.18
Ostia Mare
1.35

Ostia Mare creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 48 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
59%
Lanusei or Ostia Mare
73%
Draw or Ostia Mare
67%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
13%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
69%
Lanusei 2+ goals
33%
Lanusei 3+ goals
12%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
74%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
39%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
45%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lanusei scores more
33%
level
27%
Ostia Mare scores more
41%

Ostia Mare at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lanusei vs Ostia Mare — Match Preview

Lanusei face Ostia Mare on April 9, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone G fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lanusei host Ostia Mare at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.