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Lanusei vs Latina — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
FT
2 – 1
Latina
Latina
1/26/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 21Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lanusei37%
×Draw25%
Latina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.38
Latina
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Latina
1.69

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Latina
1.54

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Latina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Latina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
62%
Lanusei or Latina
75%
Draw or Latina
63%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
17%
Latina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
75%
Lanusei 2+ goals
40%
Lanusei 3+ goals
16%
Latina 1+ goals
75%
Latina 2+ goals
41%
Latina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
49%
Latina (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Latina away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Latina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Latina attack 1.69 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lanusei scores more
37%
level
25%
Latina scores more
38%

Latina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Latina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Lanusei 2–1 Latina

Lanusei beat Latina 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei).