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Lanusei vs Giugliano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Giugliano
Giugliano
12/8/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lanusei31%
×Draw27%
Giugliano42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.14
Giugliano
1.38

Giugliano creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Giugliano
1.65

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Giugliano
1.06

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Giugliano+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Giugliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
58%
Lanusei or Giugliano
73%
Draw or Giugliano
69%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
12%
Giugliano wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
68%
Lanusei 2+ goals
32%
Lanusei 3+ goals
11%
Giugliano 1+ goals
75%
Giugliano 2+ goals
40%
Giugliano 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
42%
Giugliano (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Giugliano away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Giugliano defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Giugliano attack 1.65 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lanusei scores more
31%
level
27%
Giugliano scores more
42%

Giugliano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Giugliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanusei vs Giugliano

Giugliano beat Lanusei 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei in Lanusei.