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Lanusei vs Città di Anagni — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
FT
1 – 2
Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
12/15/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 16Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lanusei44%
×Draw26%
Città di Anagni31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.49
Città di Anagni
1.21

Lanusei creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Città di Anagni
1.31

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Città di Anagni
1.77

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Città di Anagni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
69%
Lanusei or Città di Anagni
74%
Draw or Città di Anagni
56%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
21%
Città di Anagni wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
77%
Lanusei 2+ goals
44%
Lanusei 3+ goals
19%
Città di Anagni 1+ goals
70%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
34%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
59%
Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Città di Anagni away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Città di Anagni defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.49

Città di Anagni attack 1.31 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lanusei scores more
44%
level
26%
Città di Anagni scores more
31%

Lanusei at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lanusei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanusei vs Città di Anagni

Città di Anagni beat Lanusei 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei).