Lanusei 1–1 Atletico Uri: Result & Stats

Lanusei

FT

1 – 1

Atletico Uri

12/5/2021

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lanusei48%

×Draw26%

Atletico Uri26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanuseiExpected goals in this matchAtletico Uri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.99

Lanusei

1.46

Atletico Uri

0.99

Lanusei creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 68 away

1.21

creates per match

0.87

1.10

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Lanusei

1.21

Atletico Uri

0.87

allows per match

Lanusei

1.10

Atletico Uri

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Atletico Uri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw

74%

Lanusei or Atletico Uri

74%

Draw or Atletico Uri

52%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+

24%

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals

77%

Lanusei 2+ goals

43%

Lanusei 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)

65%

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lanusei scores more

48%

level

26%

Atletico Uri scores more

26%

Lanusei at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lanusei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff